Working away on my Irish Independent article so I only have time for a very quick update...
The bad news is that the form study is going through a bad spell and is down to €80 profit to €10 stakes. This is a big concern because I was well up before Christmas. However, I've nearly 200 bets under the belt at this stage and have plenty of data to analyse. I think there are improvements to be made and I'm hopeful I can turn it around when I get time to do more work on it.
The good news is that the horses I've been picking to trade off in-running has been flying and is well in profit. Granted, I did hit a bit of a winning streak over the past couple of days but nonetheless, It's going great with a strike rate of over 60%. I've a few for today which I may as well post up. The idea is to back them at Betfair SP, then lay them off at half their price in-running.
So if you back a horse with 100pts at 11.0 (10/1), you then put in an order to lay it in-running at 6.0 (5/1) which is half the price, with 200pts.
If the horse trades 50% below its BSP as expected, you lose 100pts for the back bet but gain 200 for the lay (a total profit of 100pts excluding commission). If it doesn't trade at 50% of its BSP, you lose the 100pts back bet. If the horse wins, you have a zero book on it.
So basically, you either win 100pts or lose 100pts or are at zero.
Here's a few for today I reckon may trade lower in-running than their BSP:
16 hours ago