Looking forward to this one - I backed Danedream each-way and put him in today's Independent. Looks like a cracking race. Not a bad weekend of sport with a Dublin v Meath Leinster Final tomorrow - still not sure if I'll go in or not.
2011 Arc winner Danedream:
DANEDREAM TO SCORE FOR GERMANS
SHE initially had problems with her public image, but during World War II,
the Queen consort Elizabeth (or the Queen Mother as she was later
known) gained respect for standing up to the Germans alongside her
husband, King George VI, when she refused to leave London during the
"The children won't leave without me. I won't leave without the King -- and the King will never leave," she declared.
Interestingly, the race that carries both their names, The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth
Stakes (4.35 Ascot), has never been won by a German-trained horse (not
that a huge number have contested it), but the Peter Schiergen-trained
Danedream ticks all the right boxes to put that right.
renewal is top notch, which partly explains why the Cologne-based
selection is trading at a double-figure price on the exchanges and,
while I don't underestimate the quality of the opposition, the 2011 Prix
de l'Arc de Triomphe winner risks being overlooked in the betting, with
punters getting stuck into Nathanial and Sea Moon instead.
St Nicholas Abbey had been the ante-post favourite, but he went cold in the market and now trades around the 3/1 mark.
Thursday, a mate who works in Ladbrokes assured me that there was no
obvious reason for the drift in price, but, to be honest, I wasn't too
keen on the five-year-old anyway, partly because he appears to have a
preference for going left-handed and he also likes better ground.
reported some reasonable sized bets for the son of Montjeu on Thursday
and he may well be vying for favouritism if more money arrives.
Nathanial (5/2), I can't really say anything negative about last year's
winner following a fine display in the Coral-Eclipse, although I wonder
if that race -- his seasonal debut -- was a little tough on the colt
and it should be noted that the gap between the Coral-Eclipse and the
King George is a little shorter than normal this year.
(11/4) is still unbeaten in two starts this season and certainly has
strong claims, but I have Danedream right up there with the market
leaders on ability, so at the prices, she's an each way no-brainer for
me. Last year's victory in Paris is by far her strongest form and, while
she hasn't been running to that level this season, her fourth place of
four runners in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud can be overlooked as the
race lacked any pace due to the small field.
10-runner field at Ascot will almost certainly see her improve and I
wouldn't be at all surprised to see the prize money go back to Germany.
Another one to watch is the Japanese horse, Deep Brillante, which is generally available at 16/1.
He's already won over £2m and as the only three-year-old in the field, he gets a very handy 12lb weight allowance.
At 16/1 and higher, Van Ellis is worth a shot in the Betfair Summer Double International Stakes at Ascot (3.55). Mark Johnston's
colt had plenty in hand when winning a fairly strong handicap at
Chester, but the handicapper has still left room for improvement and
another strong run is expected.
2.10 Ascot: Tornado
3.10 Newmarket: Bible Belt
3.55 Ascot: Van Ellis (e/w)
4.35 Ascot: Danedream (e/w)
16 hours ago