Trading software

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Favourites strategy

Morning all, a couple of bets today. On the form study, Billybo looks very interesting in the opener at Towcester. He's actually 9lb out of the handicap and it's a couple of years since he's had a race. However, he has been out an about on the point-to-point scene and is doing well by all accounts. He's changed trainer and is with Tim Vaughan now - someone I always watch out for in the handicaps. Currently priced 5/4.

On the favourites strategy, there's one selection today - Angles Hill, 1.50 Towcester. Short enough around 4/5. The favourites strategy has been going well although I do admit it's early days with only 45 bets under the belt. So far, we have:

Bets: 45
Wins: 23
Strike rate: 51.11%
Profit: 15.91pts

(Bets recorded to Betfair SP and assume commission is 5%)

Here's a chart of how it is doing to a €10 stake:

It's going in the right direction but as I say, it is early days.

On a less positive note, the price of gold has continued to drop and I'm now at break-even point. This is frustrating because there was money on the table which I could have took. However, the entry and exit points are based on moving averages so I haven't got a sell sign yet. This is the downside of using technical analysis - there's always a time lag with things like moving averages. The upside is that it helps you stay in a trend and gives you clear buy and sell points. I'll keep going for now and see how we get on.

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