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Saturday, June 30, 2012

2012 Irish Derby at the Curragh

Haven't had time to look for inplay trades this morning - I'm off out now so no selections on those.

Looking forward to the Irish Derby this evening - I think it's a good idea to try it out on a Saturday evening. At the prices, I think Camelot is a lay, although he's clearly the best horse in the race. Here's today's Irish Independent:

EPSOM Derby hero Camelot will most probably open up around 1/3 for this evening's Irish equivalent at the Curragh (7.40), but whether or not the Montjeu colt will attract any serious money in the betting ring remains to be seen.
Backing at those prices requires plenty of bottle, nerves of steel -- and maybe even a little madness in the head -- but I'm not so sure I'd be happy to take such short odds on the three-year-old today considering the inclement weather the country has been suffering.
Some punting pals of mine have a rule whereby they never bet odds-on, but backing at those prices in Group One races has proved profitable in each of the last five seasons, so I wouldn't dismiss it completely.
This year, eight horses have gone to post odds-on in Group One races -- Frankel (twice), So You Think (twice), St Nicholas Abbey, Camelot, Fame And Glory and Black Caviar -- and, had you put a ton on each, you'd have €189 profit in your pocket today.
Out of that bunch, just Fame And Glory lost his race, although backers' stress levels would have been at an all-time high last week watching Luke Nolen almost throw away the Diamond Jubilee Stakes on Black Caviar.
heavy
While he's clearly the best horse in the race, I reckon Camelot could join Fame And Glory as an odds-on loser, with the ground likely to come up soft with heavy spots in places.
Granted, he did win the 2,000 Guineas on soft ground but connections maintain he prefers better going, and Aidan O'Brien told RTÉ yesterday that conditions at Irish racing HQ are not exactly perfect.
With those concerns in mind, I've decided to take him on and, while the likes of Imperial Monarch and Born To Sea could be good backing alternatives, the simple option is to lay the favourite and have the rest of the field, including those two, running for me.
Camelot makes up around 75pc of the book, so by clicking pink you are effectively getting 3/1 on the rest of the field.
With regard to the meeting itself, it was a bold decision to move the Irish Derby away from the traditional Sunday afternoon but with racing attendance in decline, it's worth giving it a try.
Ronan Keating takes to the stage afterwards and while he's not my cup of tea, it brings a bit of life to the place and hopefully a big crowd too.
Across the water at Lingfield, Beggar's Opera has claims in the Surrey Royal British Legion Selling Stakes (8.0), priced 5/1.
They tried him out over hurdles last year without much success but I'm confident that we'll see this course and distance winner spring back to life now that he's back on the level.

Soccer
The fact that fellow Group C members Spain and Italy are now in the final makes Ireland's dismal performance at Euro 2012 a little bit easier to take, but I'm not yet convinced that Italy are the real deal and you'd have to say that Spain have more strength in depth. They are 6/5 to win in 90 minutes but, with a realistic chance of a draw, the safest option is to back Spain to lift the trophy at 4/7.
Racing
Though he normally races at six furlongs, I'm hoping the step back up to seven for Hoof It won't stretch him too much in the John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes at Newmarket (3.35). He was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at York last month, but he put in a solid season last term and is taken to get back to winning ways, priced around 11/10.
- Wayne Bailey


EACH-WAY OUTSIDER
A few bookmakers quoted me 14/1 about Lexington Bay for the Northumberland Plate (3.20 Newcastle) yesterday but I've a feeling some bigger prices might be available closer to the off.
The Pitmen's Derby has thrown up numerous double-figure winners in recent years and this High Chaparral gelding won't be overburdened in the weights with 8st 4lbs. He had a progressive season in 2011 (winning three times) and his disappointing ninth last time can be overlooked as he wasn't fully race fit.

TODAY'S SELECTIONS
3.20 Newcastle: Lexington Bay (e/w)
3.35 Newmarket: Hoof It
3.40 Curragh: Leitir Mor
7.40 Curragh: *LAY* Camelot
8.0 Lingfield: Beggar's Opera
- Wayne Bailey - Betting Room
Irish Independent

Friday, June 29, 2012

Neville Chamberlain "peace for our time"

So the EU have done a deal whereby the bailout monies will go directly to the struggling banks rather than it becoming the individual country's debt. While the deal is welcome, it's still just a plaster on a deep wound.

Don't get me wrong, I really hope Ireland benefits from this but to listen to the Taoiseach and Tánaiste on the radio, you would think they secured the country's future. They are acting as if they got this deal for Ireland themselves - but it's all because of the likes of Spain who simply can't pay. I reckon Enda Kenny is just as surprised as anyone that Merkel allowed this but I suppose he has to make political capital out of it and pretend he had a part in it. I think RTÉ'S headline was a bit over the top:



It's not as if Ireland has secured anything - we might benefit from a deal made in the EU. Big deal. It kinda reminds me of Neville Chamberlain getting off the plane with the Anglo-German agreement where he declared that they had secured 'peace for our time'.  All this just before World War Two of course:


I digress.

The markets have reacted positively to the news with a rise across most big indices and a spike in the Euro vs the US dollar:




However, while the above 15 minute chart looks positive, the longer term charts show that it's not really a big rise at all. Here's the daily EURO/USD chart:



As I say, I hate to be negative and I really hope the deal saves Ireland a few quid - but you have to be realistic and a number of European countries are still up shit creek.

**

I got stopped out for a loss on my S&P gap trade yesterday. Looking back, I'm kinda annoyed with myself for even making the trade. The gap trade should only be done on quiet days so it was a bit silly to do it on a day where there is a big meeting. I justified the trade yesterday by saying it was only a small few quid; but pennies make pounds and all these losses add up. The loss was less than €20 but if I'm honest, I broke my own rules and have to make a note of that and try not to do it again.

With regard to the horseracing, I can't find any good back bets for today. I'm working on tomorrow's Irish Independent article and might have spotted one or two for tomorrow though. I've two inplay trades for today although I must admit that I'm still worried about them as they are only around €50 in profit at this stage (having been up around €300 a while back):



Anyway, I better get back to my article - best of luck with your trading/betting today.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

The S&P500 gap trade

Can't really find any bets or trades on the horses today so I'm leaving that alone. I've spent a couple of hours going through the cards but it's just one of those days where nothing stands out so there's no point in forcing it and I'll keep my money safe.

With regard to the financial trading, it's a bit of a tricky day as we have yet another crucial EU summit (how many times have we heard that now?) so the markets are a bit choppy in anticipation of any news.

It could be a bit dodgy but I've bought the S&P 500 at 1319.6 and I'm hoping it rises to last night's closing price - basically I'm trying the S&P Gap Trade.  I've set a stop around 1313 but I'm only using small stakes because of the EU summit etc. I'll get out of the trade, win or lose, before 3.30pm when the real US markets take over. 

S&P500 15 minute chart as of 12.25pm:


Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Tuesday

Very sad news today in that jockey Campbell Gillies had died while away on holiday.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=181960

 Like a lot of us, he came onto my radar when riding Brindisi Breeze to victory at Cheltenham this year. So sad, only 21 years of age.

  I was also watching the funeral of another young man on the news yesterday, James Nolan, the Irish football fan who drowned while at the Euros.

You go from day to day thinking you have problems but when you see how life can be taking away so quickly, it puts things into perspective. To see young people pass away like that is just so tragic. By all accounts, they were both lovely blokes.


RIP to both.


I've no inplay trades today, just a couple of back bets:


With regard to the financial trading, it really is a case of trying to grab a couple of points here and there and not get taken out on any bad news. Last night it emerged that yet another country, Cyprus, has requested a bailout. While Cyprus is small, it shows that the rot has spread all through Europe and it's only a matter of time before we have to face the devil  on this one. What the future holds for the currency and the union is anyone's guess.

Gold trades around $1585 for an ounce - that meant I got stopped out when it dropped down to $1600. It's a bit of a bummer to get stopped out but I bought it turned out to be the right thing to do and I made 45pts on it regardless.  I'm flat on gold with no strong opinion at the moment, if it drops back down around $1550 and there's no sign of an end to the ongoing drama in the financial markets, I may buy a bit again.

The price of gold - daily chart:

Monday, June 25, 2012

Marathon training

Went for a 15K run yesterday as I start to prepare for running the marathon in October. My legs are a bit sore today but it wasn't as hard as I thought and didn't take too long. On Sunday, I'll probably try 20 to 25K.  Interestingly, I came across this site today which has marathons of 100K

http://www.forestmarathon.com/news.html

100K ?? My God!   Seems mental, but then again, ye never know what the future holds...

 I didn't do any punting on Sunday but it wasn't a bad day on Saturday with my main bet for the Indo, Sea Moon, winning at 3/1.

A quiet day today with just on inplay trade:



Saturday, June 23, 2012

Black Caviar

Can't wait to see the wonder-mare, Black Caviar, in action today on British soil:


It's been a fantastic Royal Ascot with Frankel confirming himself as the greatest flat horse of all time and now today, we have the second-best horse in the world racing. She's not really opposable today although at the prices, there's not much point backing her either. I think I'll just crack open a can of stout, put the feet up and enjoy this race for what it is.

I quite fancy Sea Moon in the Hardwicke stakes, priced around 7/2. Looked a little rusty last time out but needed to shake off the cobwebs.

It was a good day yesterday with Demurely winning at Limerick but once again, the inplay lays didn't really go anywhere. I've a couple of those today:


For Saturday's paper, I done a little bit of a write up on Frankel. We really need to appreciate and enjoy these horses while they are around - it could be decades before we see the likes again:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/no-argument-frankel-is-the-greatest-3147066.html


No argument -- Frankel is the greatest


THE late Bobby Frankel, one of the greatest American thoroughbred trainers of all time, was a master handicapper in his youth and his in-depth knowledge of the formbook enabled him to make a fairly lucrative income from betting before he took out his first training licence in 1966.

Forty-six years later, the modern-day handicappers at Timeform have recognised the horse named after Bobby Frankel as the greatest Flat runner of all time.

Royal Ascot 2012 has been memorable for a number of reasons, but Frankel's victory in the Queen Anne on Tuesday makes it historic.

Until now, no horse has ever earned a Timeform rating as high as 147.

A bloke I drink with down the local, in his 70s, claims he was there to witness Sea Bird win the Derby in 1965 (even though his wife tells me he's never been to England in his life) and for the past couple of years, we've argued over which horse is the best.

squabble

It's a futile squabble really as it's nigh impossible to compare horses from different eras, but after Tuesday's win, even this staunch defender of Sea Bird has conceded that Frankel is probably the greatest of all time.

As racing fans, we should enjoy this while it lasts as it could be a while before we see his likes again. We have to go back to the 1960s to see any horses rated near this high -- Seabird was rated 145 and Brigadier Gerard was rated 144.

It's astonishing to think the best might be yet to come from Frankel and the step up to a mile and a quarter in the Juddmonte International or maybe the Eclipse will not prove troublesome.

I think I'll make a special effort and travel over to see him race this season, so that in years to come, I can sit on a barstool and (truthfully) tell the youngsters that I saw the greatest horse of all time in the flesh.

Not only have we seen what is officially the best horse in the world at Ascot this week, the second-best horse will run today in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (3.45) and it's no surprise to see the wonder-mare Black Caviar trade as low as 2/7 in the betting. She's unbeaten in 21 starts, but I'm sure my editor wouldn't be too pleased if I was tipping horses priced as low as that so for something a little bigger, consider backing Sea Moon around 11/4 in the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes (3.05 Ascot).

With six victories in this race, trainer Michael Stoute knows the sort it takes to win and the four-year-old certainly matches that profile.

Sea Moon had a cracking season as a three-year-old, winning the Great Voltigeur Stakes among other races, and his return to the winners' enclosure at Goodwood in May proved that he hasn't lost his will to win.

EACH-WAY outsider

A large field of 29 will go to post for today's Wokingham Stakes Handicap (4.25 Ascot) so it's definitely a tricky one from a betting point of view.

One that catches the eye is the Andrew Balding-trained Desert Law, generally available at 12/1. He was back to near his best when second of 20 runners at Epsom last time, but the handicapper's mark of 97 still leaves room for improvement.

TODAY'S SELECTIONS

3.05 Ascot: Sea Moon

4.25 Ascot: Desert Law (e/w)

7.35 Lingfield: Standing Strong

- Wayne Bailey

Friday, June 22, 2012

Friday

Not a bad day yesterday with a winner at Leopardstown earning a couple of points. Just one back bet for today:


The inplay lays lost about a point - I could do with a good streak on those to boost the bank. Here's today's:




Thursday, June 21, 2012

Running the Dublin marathon

Only getting to post late today as I was at my daughters school concert. She won Irish speaker of the year which I'm very proud of. Her school is an all-Irish school and she's has been working very hard at it so I'm a happy daddy today.

A good day yesterday with Wexford's selection winning.

I've two for today but one already lost - fingers crossed for the other one:



 Didn't really do anything at Royal Ascot yesterday but it was interesting to see So You Think come back to form. Aidan O'Brien admitted that he screwed up with the horse - at least he's honest about it. Looking forward to the Gold Cup today but I really can't separate the top three in the betting so I'll sit this one out.

The inplay trades had a blank day yesterday with two wins and two losses. Have a few of those today:


With regard to the running, I've decided to run the Dublin marathon later this year in October. It's over 26 miles (42km) which is pretty long!

No real reason for doing it - it's just that it gives me something to aim for with the running and I guess it's one of those things people like to do before they die. At the moment, I'm running 5-10K three times a week so I'll have to start stretching myself a little further. I'm going to do a 15K run on Sunday and see how I get on.

Might collect a few bob for charity while I'm at it. I'll post about that again.


Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Royal Ascot, Wednesday & Wexford

I've been through the cards for Royal Ascot today but to be honest, I can't find any stand out value bets. I'll keep checking back on prices but I may just take a watching brief for some of it. At Wexford, I've found one I'm backing:



Enjoyed Ascot yesterday - Frankel was awesome as usual and I got 8/1 about Simenon so a nice couple of quid earned there.

An unlucky day on the inplay trades - a couple of them almost hit 50pc in-running but didn't quite get there. I've a couple of those today:


Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Royal Ascot 2012, day one betting

Great to have some top notch racing back and kicking it all off is the world's best horse, Frankel:



He's impossible to oppose although there's no real point in backing at seven-to-one on either really so it's probably just one to watch and enjoy. I quite fancy Simenon each-way at 5pm although I don't think I'll get the price I want so may not have a bet.

I love the Royal festival and hopefully, the extra interest in Ascot will see more liquidity across all races in general. Up a couple of points on the inplay trades since I made some changes so I'm hoping for a good day on those:


With regard to the financial trading, I'm still bearish on the Euro. The markets rallied a little yesterday after the Greek elections but it still doesn't solve anything. Greece is still in a mess and Spain's bond yield is once again above the bailout seven percent level. There was a small rally today although that's probably because the FED will be making some noises tomorrow. Overall though, I think this is a bears market over the next few weeks.

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Greek elections

The Euro held up reasonably well yesterday despite this weekend's Greek elections. It's around 1.266 against the dollar but I still think it's a sell on the rallies. The Greek election could actually end up being some sort of vote for them on the Euro so we'll watch with interest.

Not a great day of racing today with Royal Ascot just around the corner - looking forward to that.

Today's traditional back bet:



Today's inplay trades:


Friday, June 15, 2012

European Championships betting

Well, Ireland's Euro 2012 has come to an end, as expected. A few people are blaming Trap but the reality is that the players are not in the same league as the likes of Spain. They did their best and the results showed the gap between the teams. We can't really complain - if this were racing, it would be like Frankel taking on some middle of the road jobber horse that runs around Dunstall park every week. Time to take the Irish flags down and get the Dublin ones out - my first love.

My bet on the Netherlands looks down the drain at this stage but I'm thinking of dutching both Spain and Germany to win at an overall price of 4/5. Both look a different class. 

With regard to the running, I'm strongly thinking about doing the Dublin marathon in October. I'll have to get into training soon if I'm to do it as it is 26 miles long (42km). I've never done a marathon before but I can run long distances no bother so I think it would be a good challenge. It would give me a goal to work towards with my running and I might collect a few bob for charity along the way. I'll have a think about it over the next few days although I'm not underestimating how difficult it might be.

I'm going to avoid the financial markets today as it's just too unpredictable. We've Spain and the bonds issue and we also have the Greek elections. The anti-bailout party there is making ground and anything could happen. I'm going to wait until next week to see what way the breeze is blowing.

Today's traditional back bets:



Today's inplay trades:


Thursday, June 14, 2012

Spain and the Euro, the price of gold

No, not the football tonight where where we need a miracle - I'm talking about the financial markets.

The package Spain got has had no positive impact it seems, and their borrowing costs rose above seven percent in the past 24 hours. This is bailout territory, there's no getting away from it. But we can't just keep bailing everyone out, something's gotta give.

For now, I'm selling the Euro again and keeping my stop losses tight enough. We've also the Greek elections to think about so it could be a bit of a mad time for a while.

I bought a small bit of gold some time back at $1555 an ounce and that decision proved a good one. It's now trading around $1620 so I've moved my stop loss to $1600 and I'll just let it run. As usual, I'm kicking myself I didn't buy more! I only went in with small change but still, it's good to be in profit.

I didn't get a chance to have a look at horseracing today so no bets.

Gold rise over the past few days:


Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Wednesday

Not a bad day yesterday - the inplay trades had two wins and one level while the regular back bet was a non-runner.

A couple for today...


Back bets:






Inplay trades:


Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Review

As discussed in earlier posts, I've been through my betting and trading records with a fine tooth comb so a couple of small changes are in order.

Form study bets:
I don't think I'm doing too much wrong here although I've made one or two minor tweaks and excluded certain races. I'll keep recording and see how it goes. It's still in profit but has lost some money in recent months. One bet on that today:


Inplay trades:
The inplay trades proved interesting to look at. The Irish bets, it seems, are not proving profitable. I reckon that there is too little liquidity in these markets in-running for the strategy to work properly. This brings me on to liquidity in general - I've decided to keep an eye on the class of the race too. If I'm correct, the higher class races should have a better strike rate than those that have little liquidity. Have a look at these charts:

Here's the general in-running trades charts including all UK and Irish bets (backing with a €10 stake and laying off with €20 in-running at half the Betfair SP). You can see how it rose up and fell back down again:


Next, this chart shows the Irish only bets. You can see that they are losers overall, despite going into profit early on:


Finally, this chart shows the UK trades only. It has dropped a little in recent times but it's still a good deal healthier than the first chart:


So from here on in, the Irish trades will be excluded. I'll also keep a keen eye on the race quality to see if the better races return more profit.

I've a couple for today:



Hopefully this will give a little shot in the arm but I'll keep on monitoring it. As regards the dutching, I'm still doing that at home - it's not setting the world on fire but it's ticking away and the data is building.

 Best of luck with your trading and betting.


Sunday, June 10, 2012

Take some time to read this


I've been made aware of a blog which is well worth reading. It's by a man who is trying to recover from gambling. 


This seems like a genuine attempt by someone to get his life back on track. Gambling addiction is a very serious issue and perhaps it is glossed over by some of us involved in the industry. 

As a newspaper tipster, I often feel quite odd about my losing selections. I often wonder did someone put their last few quid on my tip and go home to the wife with nothing. 

While we all must make our own choices, those of us who 'promote' gambling in any way must also listen out for the people on the other end of it. 

A few years ago, someone I knew lost everything he had through gambling including his family. Like alcohol, gambling can be one of the most destructive things you can do if you can't moderate it or quit. Actually, it's arguable that it is more dangerous than drink because there are only so many Euros or Pounds a man can spend in one day on alcohol. The amount one can spend on gambling has no limit. 

Anyway, I wish the author well - it's great that he has faced up to the mess he has created. No matter how much he owes, no matter how much shit he is in, it is great that he's decided to face it. 

Have a read - it might inspire some others that are having problems. I always find that writing is very therapeutic. I hope the author keeps up the blog and that it acts as some sort of channel for his energy. 

Fair play to him, facing up to something like this is a massive thing in life. 

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Euro 2012 betting

The European Championships kicked off yesterday - I'm looking forward to this and trying to make a couple of bob.

There's been some good pics going around facebook - this one made me smile:


Ireland are 4/1 to get out of the group and 100/1 to win it so we are very much outsiders on all fronts. I'd love to see us get out of the group - it would be a great boost for the country. It's great to see everyone get in the mood and enjoy themselves as there's so much doom and gloom at the moment. I have the house decked out in flags and whatnot so I'm looking forward to tomorrow night.

As regards bets, I have both Ireland and Croatia to score tomorrow at 6/5. For the tournament winner, I have the Netherlands who are trading around 6/1.

Not much quality racing on today - I've a few bets but I mainly focused on the football for my Irish Independent column:


***

I OFTEN wonder how many families have kept the glass milk bottles issued by Premier Dairies to celebrate the capital's 1,000th birthday in 1988. Or the millennium 50 pence coins – anyone remember those? During that year, the country went bananas issuing commemorative collectables and my grandfather always told me to keep them safe as they “would be worth a mint” by the time I was 30.
As an eight- year- old, I believed every word he said ( I think he believed it himself), but recently, I checked how much those milk bottles were selling for online and was gutted to see that the most you'd get for one now is a little more than a tenner.
The other big event that year was the European Championships and, even though I was quite young, I can easily recall how massive an occasion it was – being the first time Ireland had qualified for a major tournament. My father bought me a ‘ Jack's Army' cap and I hardly took it off all summer. Maybe it's from watching ‘ Reeling In The Years,' but I've a crystalclear recollection of Ireland beating England and the whole nation going into party mode.
MEMORIES
A draw with the Soviets and the loss to the Netherlands meant we didn't go further, but it was a taste of things to come with Italia ' 90 just around the corner.
Both my grandfather and father are no longer with us, but the ‘ Jack's Army' cap still survives and I've proudly hung it up over the TV in time for tomorrow as a reminder of those great times.
Nostalgia aside, we will have a tough task in getting out of the group and at 4/ 1, we are the outsiders of the four to make the quarter- finals.
Still, stranger things have happened, and a result against Croatia would give a fantastic boost to the campaign. I don't want to look too far ahead though, and I'm going to take each match and betting market as it comes.
Tomorrow night looks tricky, but a punt on both teams to score could be worth a shot and is available at 6/ 5.
They may have beaten us in ' 88 but, as regards the overall winner, there could be money to be made by backing THE NETHERLANDS at 13/ 2.
Some readers may remember me tipping them for the 2010 World Cup for which they reached the final, although they found it hard to keep their heads in the last game and the ref flashed his cards a record number of times for a final. If they show a bit more discipline in this tournament, they could go all the way.

In the racing, there's a distinct lack of quality contests on offer today, but the John Gosdentrained STARBOARD has claims in the Free Betting With Freebets. co. uk Conditions Stakes at Doncaster ( 4.20), priced around 11/ 8.

DO THE DOUBLE
Soccer
I'm backing the Netherlands to win Euro 2012 and it's worth noting that they have scored more goals than any other side in qualifying for the tournament. At a general 4/6, they should be a safe enough bet to get their campaign off to a good start this evening against Denmark.
Horseracing
Listen And Learn is impossible to oppose in the bumper at Worcester (3.50). He'll be short around 1/2, but he is bred for better things -- and judging by his debut race, when just denied by Billy Twyford, he should take all the beating.

EACH WAY OUTSIDER
AT 25/ 1 and higher, LAS VERGLAS STAR is a touch too big for the John Halewood Memorial Handicap at Chester ( 3.10). While he failed to make an impact in both his races this season, he was a decent handicapper last term winning two races. He's dropped a couple of pounds in the weights and is expected to show improvement this afternoon.

SELECTIONS

7.00Windsor: Bunce
3.10Chester: Las Verglas Star (e/ w)
3.50Worcester: Listen And Learn
4.20Doncaster: Starboard
Ireland v croatia: Both teams to score
Euro2012: Netherlands to win

 LAST WEEK'S WINNERS
Pastoral player: Won at 3/ 1
St nicholas abbey: Won at 8/ 11
Desert law (e/ w): Placed at 11/ 1
Camelot: Won at 8/ 13 

- Wayne Bailey





Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Time to take stock


Oh, The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men;
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.

And when they were up, they were up,
And when they were down, they were down,
And when they were only half-way up,
They were neither up nor down.



I've decided to temporarily suspend the inplay trades for a while until I get a chance to go through them with a fine tooth comb. As you can see, they started off brilliantly and went on a big upward curve but in recent weeks, they kinda fell off the cliff. I was marched right up the hill, and then came back down. I'm still in profit of around €80 to a €10 stake but having been up over €300 at one stage, I don't feel too satisfied with that anymore, considering how much effort and time is going into this. So I'm going to check out my records to check things like whether laying at 50pc is the best option, what races do and don't work etc. etc. I'll post any findings here and perhaps pick up the €500 challenge later on:



With regard to the Dutching, the 100 bet trial came to an end. CLICK HERE FOR MORE. I'm glad I beat the books and made a profit although it was nothing spectacular. I'll keep doing these myself at home for another 100 bets or so and see what comes up. 

Regarding the traditional back bets, I also hope to review those again this week. They are just about in front at the moment but have done precious little lately. Here's today's bet anyway:



Now that the bank holiday weekend etc is out of the way, I'm going to start getting up at 6am again. I was up that early this morning and it's amazing how much you can get done from 6am to 8am. I'll drop my daughter to school for 9am and then I'll go for a run. I'm still trying to keep fit and am meeting my goals on that front. Going running is great - it ensures I'm not sluggish during the day but also ensures I'm tired enough in the evenings to go to bed at about 12. Six hours sleep is enough for me at night although I know that eight is recommended. But as a man once said, sleeping is the closest thing you can do to being dead, so you don't want to be doing too much of it. 

I've made it my business to start trading the financials again from this week - I was doing well at that but kinda got out of it for a while. I've had a look but can't find any trades today but I'll keep my eyes peeled. 

Monday, June 4, 2012

In a hurry

Sorry - not much time for a write up as I want to take my daughter out today as it is sunny - if I get a chance, I'll post some updates on things later this evening but briefly...

Inplay trades - starting to suffer again. I'm going to suspend the €500 challenge on these until I get a chance to review them (hopefully I'll get to do that this evening). They were flying at first and have since nosedived - I'll sift through my data and see what comes up. I'll keep doing them for now but not as part of the challenge. I'll pick up on that again soon and post about it accordingly.

Dutching - Today's six bets will bring it neatly to 100 bets. Fingers crossed I get a few points today and finish a few points ahead. I'll then consider what to do next.

Here's today's traditional back bets:




Today's inplay trades:


Sunday, June 3, 2012

The Derby, Dublin v Louth

It was a good day all round yesterday with a nice return on my Irish Independent column. I enjoyed the Derby and you've got to hand it to Camelot and Joseph O'Brien - for a moment, I thought he'd left it too late and his price drifted out to 5.5 in-running but he powered on home and he really is a class act. I hope he goes on to the St Leger to try complete the triple crown as he'd be the first horse since Nijinsky to do it.

I had St Nicholas Abbey in a double and the second part of that is for Dublin to score first today so fingers crossed. That match throws-in at 4.30 so I look forward to that. Dublin should win by a country mile in fairness and their price of sixteen to one on is about right.

I've one traditional back bet today and a few inplay trades. Best of luck with your betting/trading:

Back bet:



Inplay trades:




Saturday, June 2, 2012

Epsom Derby 2012, Dutching, Trading on Betfair

A good weekend of sport ahead with the Epsom Derby and Dublin playing in Croke Park tomorrow. I don't think I'll get to go but I'll get to see it on the box at least. As regards the Derby, it's hard to see past Camelot although Bonfire could be a good each-way 'bet to nothing'.

Busy enough day on the Dutching trial which is currently about 5pts in profit. I've also a few inplay trades which are posted below. Here's today's Irish Independent article with my thoughts on the day:

***

STUDENTS of American politics may be familiar with the life and times of Richard 'Boss' Croker, who was born in Blackrock, Cork, in 1843.
Croker's family left for America when he was a small child, so he grew up in New York where he later became head of Tammany Hall, a hugely influential political organisation, which regularly assisted the massive immigrant population in the city.
But it's fair to say that not all members of Tammany Hall were upstanding pillars of society, and the colourful Croker was known to receive large bribes from the owners of saloons, brothels and illegal gambling dens.
His interest in gambling, however, was not confined to the backstreet bookies of Brooklyn and in 1907, a horse he owned named Orby won Britain's most prestigious race, the Epsom Derby.
Croker died in his native Ireland in 1922 leaving behind a $4m fortune and the pall-bearers included Arthur Griffith and Oliver St John Gogarty.
The reason I mention Croker is because this year's Derby (4.0 Epsom) will have just nine runners and the last time we had a field that small was when Orby was ridden to victory in the colours of Croker 105 years ago.
achievement
Interestingly, Orby was actually the first Irish-trained winner of the race, which was a major achievement at the time, considering the Derby had been on the go since 1780.
Of course, we are well accustomed to Irish trained victories these days with numerous winners this century alone -- and it's no surprise to see the Aidan O'Brien-trained Camelot head the market at 8/15 following an impressive victory in the Guineas.
I must admit that I wasn't that keen on the three-year-old for that race, opting to back Caspar Netscher instead, but I've since jumped on the bandwagon (albeit a little late) and I don't think there's much point in opposing today, especially considering the size of the field.
His breeding suggests he'll show yet more improvement over a mile and a half and this one could go on to become a real star.
For each-way backers, Bonfire could be a good 'bet to nothing' around 4/1 and he's the one most likely to breathe down the favourite's neck. He should also get the trip and if the assessor has it right, the Andrew Balding-trained colt only has two pounds to make up on the favourite.
But backing horses at those prices won't pay for many Bank Holiday pints of plain, so attention is turned to Haydock, where Pastoral Player makes appeal at 6/1 in the Group Three Timeform Jury stakes (2.35).
This very smart handicapper confirmed his ability when winning a valuable handicap at Ascot in October, following on from a few tricky contests where things just didn't go his way.
The handicapper put him up 6lbs for his efforts, but that didn't seem to hamper him too much on his return to racing this season when finishing sixth of 24 runners in the Betfred Victoria Cup.
Expect the five-year-old to rattle the cage of likely favourite Red Jazz today.

Each-way Outsider
AT 12/1, Desert Law is overpriced for the Investec Specialist Bank 'dash' Handicap at Epsom (3.15). He almost always races at six furlongs, but, having watched a few replays of him in action, I get the impression that he'll enjoy the minimum distance today.

Today's Selections
2.35 Haydock: Pastoral Player
2.40 Epsom: St Nicholas Abbey
3.10 Haydock: Mohedian Lady (e/w)
3.15 Epsom: Desert Law (e/w)
4.00 Epsom: Camelot

Do the double
Horse racing
St Nicholas Abbey won the 2011 Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup at Epsom and can do so again today (2.40) priced around 8/15. His defeat at The Curragh last time is excused as the pacemaker left him with too much to do, but his previous second placing by a neck in the Sheema Classic at Meydan proved that the four-year-old had retained all of his old ability.
Gaelic football
As one would expect, Fine Gael TD and Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick has been talking up his county's chances ahead of their championship clash with Dublin. But realistically, the gap between these teams is massive and it's almost impossible to envisage the Wee County coming out on top at Croke Park tomorrow.
The bookies have the Dubs as virtual certs at 1/16, but more value can be had by backing Dublin to score first at 8/15 with Ladbrokes.

- Wayne Bailey
Irish Independent


Friday, June 1, 2012

Dutching on Betfair

I'm up to bet 82 in my Dutching trial (of 100 bets) and am currently in profit of nearly €50 to a €10 stake.

I guess I'm pleased with this although as you can see from the chart below, the profit was over €100 at one stage then dipped into the red, and then recovered again.




While I'm happy to be in profit, I much prefer a smoother ride!  Still though, I've built some data to work with and perhaps I can do some analysis and improve things further. I'll keep going until the 100 bets anyway and report back then: