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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Wednesday

Don't want to sound like it's sour grapes but I don't think I've every seen worse refereeing than I did in last night's Celtic match against Juventus. Fair enough, Celtic were soundly beaten but when they were one nil down, they were playing much better football but the Juventus 'defending' was more akin to wrestling, especially on the set-pieces they feared. Had Celtic got a goal, who knows how it would have went but the referee somehow didn't spot it or else he ignored it so now it's almost impossible for Celtic at this stage. That's football I guess but it's frustrating nonetheless.

The racing proved frustrating too with Nazreef trading at 1/2 in-running before getting beat. A load of them lately have traded at low prices and then get beat so I'm going to have a look at that strategy again where I lay them in-running and see if it would have made a difference. For example, I could leave an order to lay the selection at 1.5 in-running. If I use the same stake as the backing stake, there are three outcomes:

1. The horse never hits 1.5 and loses: I lose my stake as normal.
2. The horse hits 1.5 in running but loses the race: I lose my back stake but gain on the lay (so I break even).
3. The horse wins the race: I win the back bet but half a point is knocked off the profit for the lay.

I'm not going to go changing things now just because I'm in a losing patch - but I think it would be no harm to look at the stats and see (on paper) what would have happened. Anyway, I've one bet on that today:

3.30 Lingfield: Cousin Khee
Fairly useful hurdler who showed plenty of speed to win 2 jumpers' bumpers at Kempton and here this winter. Good effort on Flat debut 12 days ago and capable of better now upped in trip.

 Enjoy the day,

Wayne

2 comments:

  1. great read mate keep up the good work, any cricket trading help would be awesome


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  2. Thanks for the comments. I don't know much about Cricket myself unfortunately - Stephen Maher is very god at it: http://gamblerfalls.com/

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